Feed&Grain.com |

URBANA - The most important of three upcoming USDA reports in terms of crop prices may be the Prospective Plantings report, said a University of Illinois Extension marketing specialist.

"Expectations for planting intentions seem to be centering around 87 million acres for corn and 71 to 72 million acres for soybeans," said Darrel Good. "That estimate compares to 2007 acreage of 93.6 million and 63.63 million, respectively. Intentions for spring wheat are expected to exceed last year's seedings.

"The planting intentions estimate will provide a benchmark for anticipating actual plantings. Recent price changes that include much lower soybean futures and extremely weak new crop soybean basis have shifted potential profitability significantly in favor of corn over soybeans in much of the Midwest."

At the same time, he noted, generally cool and very wet conditions in some areas may lead to anticipation of corn planting delays and a swing to more soybean acres.

"While many producers have locked in the planting decisions for most of their acreage, history reveals some significant differences between intentions and actual planted area," Good said. "Factor in the uncertainty about growing season weather in the Northern Hemisphere and the ingredients for large price swings are in place."

Good's comments came as he reviewed the three upcoming USDA reports that will provide fundamental information for crop markets. These reports are: the quarterly Hogs and Pigs report due March 28, the quarterly Grain Stocks and the annual Prospective Plantings, both due on March 31.

The first will reveal the size of the winter pig crop as well as the production plans of hog producers. Current and prospective hog numbers will provide some insight into potential domestic feed demand over the next year.